Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Tanner's much better than Stefan's playoff predictions

Allow me to expand upon (i.e. one-up) Stefan's predictions by making my own.

Saturday PM CIN at HOU (-3)

Cincy has only beaten one team with a winning record all season (week 9 24-17 over the Titans in the Cincinnati vs. Tennessee "Where the fuck do the double letters go?" Bowl). Houston was statistically the best team in the league before Matt Schaub got hurt. T.J. Yates should be able to manage the game with Andre Johnson coming back, and I fully expect Arian Foster to have over 150 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. The Texans D will take care of a stagnant Bengals offense as Andy Dalton and AJ Green hit the rookie wall.

TEXANS (-3) 21 OVER Bengals 10

Saturday NIGHT DET at NO (-10.5)

Good God the points to be scored in this game. Detroit's secondary has no chance of containing the quick passing game of the Saints, and Drew Brees should put up huge numbers as he has done in recent weeks. That being said, the Saints will have trouble containing the vertical game of Stafford and Calvin Johnson as well, so expect there to be a lot of big plays on offense. The difference will be the Saints' ability to run the ball and the Lions' inexperience and tendency to lose composure. Expect the Saints to get up early, then the Lions to make it close before ultimately falling short. Bet the over (now at 59) and prop bet under 1.5 punts (5:1).

LIONS (+10.5) 42 OVER Saints 49

*the only thing that makes me nervous about this bet is that New Orleans has covered 9 straight games. Yikes!

Sunday AM ATL at NYG (-3)

This is an interesting match-up of the most consistent team in the league (the boring Falcons) versus the biggest set of headcases to make the playoffs (the Giants). Whatever the Giants do this postseason I would not be surprised; they can win the Super Bowl and just as easily get stomped in this game. If the Falcons can run the ball well and control the Giants' pass rushers, they can make enough plays against the poor Giants' back seven to win. If Eli Manning can limit his turnovers and get the ball to his playmakers, the Giants could score too many points for the Falcons to keep up. I think the Falcons will be impatient and the Giants D will step up against the run, and the Falcons won't be able to score enough points to win.

GIANTS (-3) 26 OVER Falcons 16

Sunday PM PIT (-9) at DEN

This one has all the makings of an upset. Pittsburgh is banged-up (Big Ben fighting an ankle sprain, Mendenhall out with a torn MCL, Ryan Clark out with sickle-cell...) there should be crazy weather and crazy fans, Denver has ferocious pass-rushers against the Steelers' piss-poor o-line, the list goes on and on. Also, the Steelers strength is stopping the pass, and that's not really an issue for the Broncos. The discrepancy that seals it for me is perhaps the greatest kicker mismatch in recent playoff history: the Broncos have rocket legged Dan Prater who routinely kicks 50+ yarders and the Steelers have Sean Can't-pronounce-his-last-name who was cut from the Redskins for sucking miserably. The defense and special teams will get the job done and Tebow will get the credit.

Broncos (+9) 16 OVER Steelers 13 (OT)

1 comment:

Stefan said...

Besides some of your picks being wrong I think it's pretty good. I was going to mention the spread and such but then I didn't feel like it.