Oscar Picks

I am pretty confident that I will go 6 for 6 on the main ones. I will list all the nominees and then pick the one I think will win and give you my reasoning. Then I will say who I think should win.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams. DOUBT

Penelope Cruz. VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA

Viola Davis. DOUBT

Taraji P. Henson. BENJAMIN BUTTON

Marissa Tomei. THE WRESTLER

Gonna win: I am gonna go with Taraji P. Henson. I have a feeling that Penelope Cruz is not gonna win. Marissa Tomei already won one for My Cousin Vinny, and the two actresses from Doubt will split votes. That leaves Henson, and Benjamin Button has to win at least one Oscar, right? Also, I thought she was the most interesting character in the film.

Should win: Henson

Best Supporting Actor:

Josh Brolin. MILK

Robert Downey Jr. TROPIC THUNDER

Phillip Seymour Hoffman. DOUBT

Heath Ledger. THE DARK KNIGHT

Michael Shannon. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Gonna win: Heath Ledger. Easiest pick on the board.

Should win: David Kross. THE READER. He gave an amazing performance, better than Kate Winslet in the same movie. Plus, he was only seventeen years old for most of the filming.

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway. RACHEL GETTING MARRIED

Angelina Jolie. CHANGELING

Melissa Leo. FROZEN RIVER

Meryl Streep. DOUBT

Kate Winslet. THE READER

Gonna win: Kate Winslet. She could have been nominated for Revolutionary Road, too, if the Academy didn't have a rule against it. Plus she has been snubbed so many times that the voters will feel she is due.

Should win: Winslet.

Best Actor:

Richard Jenkins. THE VISITOR

Frank Langella. FROST NIXON

Sean Penn. MILK

Brad Pitt. BENJAMIN BUTTON

Mickey Rourke. THE WRESTLER

Gonna win: Mickey Rourke. He was better than the movie. And Hollywood loves a come back story. Plus he's gonna die soon (my theory is during the filming of Sin City 2).

Should win: Rourke. Especially because he had sex with his daughter.

Best Director:

David Fincher. BENJAMIN BUTTON

Steven Daldry. THE READER

Ron Howard. FROST NIXON

Gus Van Sant. MILK

Danny Boyle. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Gonna win: Danny Boyle. He's swept the other directing awards this season.

Should win: Clint Eastwood, GRAN TORINO. Slumdog was a great movie, but it had too many holes in the plot and weird coincidences that made it seem too contrived. The best part of the movie was the use of music. Gran Torino, on the other hand, flowed so well, and the story seemed so seamless. Plus Clint Eastwood got so much out of unknown actors. Eastwood may be considered a one-trick pony, but I am still captivated by every movie he directs.

Best Picture:

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

FROST NIXON

MILK

BENJAMIN BUTTON

THE READER

Gonna win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should win: I don't think any of these movies should win. Slumdog Millionaire had a sloppy story structure, Frost Nixon is a movie based on a play based on a book based on a series of interviews, Milk is just another forgettable biopic (see Ray, Ali, Walk the Line, JFK, Malcolm X), Benjamin Button was a slow and boring version of Forrest Gump, and the Reader was great but not top-notch. My favorite American movie this year was probably Gran Torino, but I don't think THAT was best picture worthy either. I have heard great things about The Visitor and Rachel Getting Married, but I haven't seen them yet. For now, I am gonna have to say The Dark Knight. It was huge in scope, beautifully shot, captivated every audience, and had heart, brains, and guts. I am not a snob that thinks a super hero movie shouldn't win best picture, and when we look back ten years from now, there is no doubt to me that The Dark Knight will be viewed as the most important moie of 2008.

Other picks:

Best Foreign Language Film: gonna and should - Waltz with Bashir

Best Animated Film: gonna and should - WALL-E

Music: gonna and should - Slumdog Millionaire

Song: gonna - "O Saya" Slumdog Millionaire, should - "The Wrestler" The Wrestler*

*supposedly there is some bullshit rule where the best song is supposed to be taken in context with where it appears in the film, so The Wrestler was inelligible because it came over the closing credits. Boo. O Saya is a close second, though.

Adapted Screenplay: gonna - Slumdog Millionaire, should - Gran Torino

Original Screenplay: gonna - Milk, should - The Dark Knight